A Comedy in Five Acts
Over the past few years, Iāve made a baffling discovery: I am all but guaranteed to lose money by reacting to the news. Not sometimes. Not occasionally. Every. Single. Time. It’s like clockwork with a side of financial heartbreak.
Let me walk you through the repeating nightmare:
āļø Act I: The Morning Revelation
Imagine me, nursing a hangover from last nightās party, sipping coffee that tastes suspiciously like regret. I open the news and see economists confidently predicting inflation will rise to 3.1% by December 2025. And I think to myself:
āAha! Inflationās going up! Time to hedge it. Iāll buy TIPSāTreasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Their price should soar, and by December Iāll be rolling in gains.ā
Feeling cleverer than a Fed chair with a crystal ball, I march off to execute my plan, imagining my future self pulling into a beach villa driveway in a new BMW.
š§Ø Act II: Reality Hits (Like a Brick)
Fast-forward to December. Inflation hits exactly 3.1%, just like the news foretold. I gleefully log into my brokerage account, expecting ticker symbols to spell āCONGRATS, GENIUS.ā
But what do I see? My TIPS havenāt moved an inch. Not up. Not down. Just… meh.
Cue internal screaming. I stare at the screen like itās personally betraying me. What happened to my glorious gains? Whereās my Beemer? WHERE?!
š§ Act III: The Epiphany (Fueled by Caffeine & Existential Dread)
I step back. I light up something herbal. I inhale it deeply and let it work its magic. I relax. I sit quietly. I think rather than react for a change.
And it comes to me: the smart moneyāhedge funds, institutional investors, anyone with a Bloomberg terminal and a caffeine IVāalready priced that inflation in long before the media reported it to me. They ran their algorithms, foresaw the inflation rise, and bought the TIPS long before I rolled out of bed that morning.
By the time I bought, the market had already priced in the 3.1% forecast. There was no upside left in the price of TIPS.
And when December came, and inflation rose just as predicted the TIPS did nothing. The hedge funds sold their TIPS and cashed out. They bought Lamborghinis. I bought disappointment.
š Act IV: The Alternative Ending (Even Worse)
Now imagine inflation doesnāt hit 3.1%. It only reaches, say, 2.4%. Guess what?
The smart money sees that coming too. They start selling TIPS early. When December rolls around, my beloved TIPS have dropped in value.
In December I log into my account and see that I lost money. Again. While being correct about the general trend.
š Act V: The Cold, Hard Lessons
- The news I read is old news. Itās what smart money already traded on.
- Reacting to news is like arriving at the train station after the train left and buying a ticket for it.
So next time I feel that caffeine-fueled flash of genius while scrolling headlines, I better remember: Iām not early. Iām last.
So what can an average Joe Schmoe like me do?
First, take it easy. Set up a diversified portfolio. Then ignore the headlinesāeven if they scream that the sky is falling. Keep contributing regularly, re-balance once a year, and let time do the heavy lifting. The research shows that over time, diversified portfolios make money. Stick with it long enough, and youāll be sipping margaritas in retirement. That is how I did it.
But if youāre bored by the dull ride āif you crave a little thrill and maybe a smarter returnāthen learn the skill to ride The Cycle. Iām having fun learning. Come along for the journey.
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Great info! I guess we should realize that the news finds out just a bit before us and you beg the questionā¦ how did they find out? Likely when the āinsidersā told them. Almost makes me wonder if that is ALWAYS the case ā¦that media doesnāt react until the insiders tell them when and where to react. Love this and want more of this thought provoking insight! Educational!
Fantastic article, my friend. And FUNNY too! You were born for this. Congrats!!
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